WP2: Geographical and temporal risk assessment

Véronique Chevalier
Agustín Estrada-Peña



WP2 Leader:Veronique Chevalier
CIRAD- Dept. ES-Environments & Societies
UR AGIRs-Animal and Integrated Risk management
Campus International de Baillarguet,
34 398 Montpellier
France
chevalier@cirad.fr


WP2 Co-Leader: Agustín Estrada-Peña
Dept. of Parasitology, Veterinary Faculty
Miguel Servet 177
50013-Zaragoza
Spain
aestrada@unizar.es



Vector-borne zoonotic diseases are of major public concern as large predicted environmental changes may favour their emergence or their spread in Europe.
This is especially true with respect to Crimean Congo Hemorrhagic Fever (CCHF), West Nile Fever (WNF) and Rift Valley Fever (RVF).
CCHF has been a long-time neglected disease, in spite of its wide distribution range and the fatality rates commonly observed in several epidemics. The disease is endemic in many countries in Africa, Europe and Asia. During 2001, cases or outbreaks have been recorded in Kosovo, Albania, Iran, Pakistan, and South Africa and in Turkey in 2006. While the existence of nosocomial infections is acknowledged, the tick bite route is the cause of important clusters of disease cases.
The basic transmission cycle of WNF involves wild and domestic birds as main hosts and mosquitoes, mainly from the Culex genus, as vectors. WNF is presumed to be endemic in Africa and Asia [1, 2]. During the last two decades the disease has re-emerged with increasing frequency of human cases with nervous system involvement in Europe [3, 4]. The introduction of the virus in the New World was unexpected. Its rapid geographical extension and its severity in terms of human and animal morbidity and mortality proved its epidemic potential.
RVF is transmitted between ruminants by mosquitoes, mainly by the floodwater Aedes and Culex genus. The disease is enzootic in numerous African countries, and spread for the first time in 2000 to Yemen and Saudi Arabia. A large epidemic occurred in 2006-2007 first in the Horn of Africa (Kenya, Tanzania, Somalia) [5, 6], then in Sudan [7]. The last outbreak occurred in Madagascar in 2008.

The epidemiological processes that trigger the spread and the emergence of a given disease are multi-factorial and remain partially unknown. Ecological unbalance induced by climatic changes, uncontrolled human development or socio-economical perturbations are critical hypotheses. There is a need to understand these processes to implement efficient early warning and control systems.

Goals:

The final output of this WP2 should be data sets and methodologies

  • to understand and model the underlying epidemiological mechanisms of these three diseases at any level of the chain and the impact of climate and environmental changes and
  • to evaluate the risk of introduction and circulation of viruses in diseases-free areas.

This preliminary step is needed to design appropriate disease monitoring and early warning systems.

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References

1.    Dauphin G., Zientara S., Zeller H., Murgue B. West Nile : worlwide current situation in animals and humans. Comp Immun Microbiol Infect Dis. 2004; 27:343-355.

2.    Murgue B., Zeller H., Deubel V. The ecology and epidemiology of West Nile Virus in Africa, Europe and Asia. Curr Top Microbiol Immunol. 2002; 267:195-221.

3.    Tsai T.F., Popovici F., Cernescu C., Campbell G.L., Nedelcu N.I. West Nile encephalitis epidemic in southeastern Romania. Lancet. 1998; 352(9130):767-771.

4.    Platonov A.E., Shipuli G.A., Shipulina O.Y., Tyutyunnik E.N., Frolochkina T.I., Lanciotti R., et al. Outbreak of West Nile Virus Infection, Volgograd Region, Russia, 1999. Emerg Infect Dis. 2001; 7(1):128-132.

5.    CDC. Rift Valley fever outbreak---Kenya, November 2006--January 2007. MMWR. 2007; 56(4):73-76.

6.    WHO. Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever in Kenya, Somalia, and United Republic of Tanzania, December 2006-April 2007. Weekly epidemiological record. 2007; 82:169-180.

7.    WHO, Rift valley fever in Sudan--Update 4, WHO, Editor. 2007, WHO: Genève.